| U.S. Forex Market Commentary |
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19:25 2007/04/19 |
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EURO The euro came off vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currencytested bids around the US$ 1.3560 level and was capped around the $1.3620level. The common currency established afresh multi-year high about 45 pips below its lifetime high beforeprofit-taking ensued. Data released inthe U.S.today saw weekly initial jobless claims fall 4,000 to 339,000 while continuingjobless claims rose 6,000 to 2,531,000. In eurozone news, the Belgian National Bank??™s April consumer confidenceindicator printed at +2, up from -1 in March. European Central Bank??™s monthly bulletin indicated monetary policyremains on the ???accommodative side??? with ???money and credit growth vigorous andliquidity in the euro area ample by all plausible measures.??? Data released in Germany today saw March producerprices rise 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Eurobids are cited around the US$ 1.3545 level. JPN/CNY The yenappreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ??117.60 level and was cappedaround the ??118.65 level. Technically,today??™s intraday low was just below the 61.8% retracement of the move from??116.35 to ??119.85. Bank of Japanreported ???Theyear-on-year rise in core consumer prices, which excludes prices of fresh foodbut includes energy prices, could stay around zero in the short run, with theimpact from the drop in crude oil prices continuing. From a longer-termperspective, consumer prices are projected to follow a positive trend.??? Most traders continue to speculate thecentral bank will not raise interest rates again for at least several months.Data released in Japantoday saw the February tertiary index rise 1.0% m/m, its strongest showingsince 1988. Also, March department storesales were off 1.5% y/y and capital flows data revealed foreign investorsremained net buyers of Japanese equities for the fourth consecutive week. BoJ also released a quarterly report todaythat indicated regional economies are moderately expanding. Traders await next week??™s semi-annual outlookon economic activity and prices. TheNikkei 225 stock index lost 1.67% to close at ??17,371.97. Dollar bids are cited around the ??117.40level. The euro weakened vis-? -vis the yen as the single currency testedbids around the ??159.60 level and was capped around the ??161.50 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-? -visthe yen as the crosses tested bids around the ??235.20 and ??97.70 levels,respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated sharply vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar asthe greenback closed at CNY 7.7165 in the over-the-counter market, down fromCNY 7.7218. Many data were released in Chinaovernight including GDP data that confirmed the economy expanded 11.1% in Q1,above market expectations. Also, theconsumer price index expanded 2.7% y/y during the same period. On a worrisomenote, March CPI was up 3.3% y/y and Q1 PPI was up 2.9% y/y. Additionally, Q1 industrial output was up18.3% y/y and Q1 retail sales were up 14.9% y/y. The fast pace of economicexpansion in China coupled with rising inflationary pressures have many tradersspeculating People??™s Bank of China will be forced to tighten monetary policyagain, likely resulting in an appreciation in the Chinese yuan. The British pound came off vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids aroundthe US$ 1.9985 level and was capped around the US$ 2.0095 level. Technically, today??™s intraday low was justbelow the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.9545 to $2.0130 level. Traders await U.K. March retail sales datatomorrow. Cable bids are cited aroundthe US$ 1.9925 level. The euro moved higher vis-? -vis theBritish pound as the single currency tested offers around the ?‚¤0.6800 figureand was supported around the ?‚¤0.6775 level. SWISS The Swiss franc depreciated marginally vis-? -vis theU.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2060 level and wassupported around the CHF 1.2000 figure. Technically, today??™s intraday high was just below the 23.6% retracementof the move from CHF 1.2280 to CHF 1.2000. The ZEWs April benchmark indicator for Switzerland??™s economic outlookimproved to -3.5 from -28.0 in March. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2085 level. Theeuro gained ground vis-? -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency testedoffers around the CHF 1.6405 level while theBritish pound moved lower vis-? -vis the Swiss franc as sterling tested bidsaround the CHF 2.4035 level. AUD The Australian dollar depreciated vis-? -vis the U.S.dollar todayas the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.8280 level and was capped around the$0.8390 level. Stops were hit below the$0.8310 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $0.8030 to$0.8390. The pair, however, establisheda fresh multi-year high today before moving lower. Data released in Australia today saw Marchmerchandise imports rise 1.0% m/m. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8250 level. CAD TheCanadian dollar weakened vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.1310level and was supported around the C$ 1.1225 level. Technically, today??™s intraday low was rightaround the 76.4% retracement of the move from C$ 1.1030 to C$ 1.1875. Data released in Canada today saw March CPI climb2.3% y/y, up from February's 2.0% climb. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the C$ 1.1150 level. |
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