NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Australian Dollar Upfront (Revisited)

The way some of the Australian Dollar cross pairs have been moving in latest days was somewhat more 'erratic' than I had expected - but at the same time I know one of the biggest mistakes for a trader is to consider the future course of the market must automatically follow some pre-established technical or fundamental set of principles.

If at least half of the elite hedge-fund managers most probably suffer from the Icarus syndrome, my greatest concern is that at some point I may begin to think that, based on certain, re-ocurring technical or fundamental factors, I already know what, where and when action will happen. This is why I am becoming nowadays increasingly more apprehensive about saying I use technical analysis, and increasingly more comfortable saying I only use charts.

The Australian Dollar cross pairs continue to attract my observing interest to a very significant extent (the GBP/AUD in particular). The current image in these pairs strongly resembles what I had been eyeing immediately prior to introducing my January 22 letter to clients with a bullish call on the EUR/AUD.

As a note of curiosity, a strong similarity could have been noted during the latest weeks, in the shape of price action, daily chart wise, between the AUD/JPY and the AUD/CHF. A similarity which I think will continue as long as the carry-trade remains the market's prevalent theme.