NEWS / Foreign Exchange

USD/CAD

I see several longer-term scenarios while thinking of the USD/CAD.
The first one is a notable low is being at hand - but no one can say precisely how far the pair would go up during a positive correction. However, such a correction can be sizable.
 
The second scenario goes for a '2B bottom' interpretation of the price action in ongoing development since May 31, 2006. This means the bears are going to make a breakdown attempt nearby 1.10, but such an attempt will quickly be defeated. Prior to testing 1.10, a modest (interim) positive correction may happen.
 
Make no mistake, this is only one of the paths price action may be following. As I have claimed recently, under circumstances which are not exceptional it may be a costing mistake to have just one, predetermined scenario. Chairman Maoxian once wrote on his website http://maoxian.com/, 'The trouble that some folks have is that they??™re always thinking in terms of ???2B tops??? and worried about getting trapped or picked off, which makes them unable to enter strongly trending markets.'.
On the other hand, even by just reacting to '2B bottom' appearances last year in the Canadian Dollar crosses and then holding on to the positions I would have made a little fortune.
 
The third scenario is the one of a collapse for real through 1.10. That will most probably happen in tandem with a collapse for real of the US Dollar Index through the 80 level as well.
With the data now at hand I think this appears to be the least likely scenario.