NEWS / Foreign Exchange

most major dollar exchange rates have chopped around in rather narrow ranges

There have been few major data releases to guide trading over the past 24 hours. Consequently, most major dollar exchange rates have chopped around in rather narrow ranges. The major exception to that statement is the Australian dollar, which has weakened across the board after the release of lower-than-expected CPI data in Australia. The New Zealand dollar has traded lower in sympathy with its counterpart on the other side of the Tasman Sea. Overall consumer prices in Australia rose only 0.1% in the first quarter relative to the previous quarter, and "core" prices were up only 0.5%, which was also lower than most investors had expected. The better-than-expected inflation numbers sharply reduce the probability the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike rates at next week's policy meeting. The currency had risen rather rapidly in a relatively short period of time, so further declines, at least in the near term, may await the Aussie dollar.

Attention now turns to this morning's release of U.S. economic data. The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence will print at 10:00 EDT. The recent run-up in gasoline prices and declines in other measures of consumer confidence have the consensus forecast anticipating a drop in the index from 107.2 in March to 105.0 in April. Data on the nation's housing market will also be released this morning in the form of the Case-Schiller index of house prices and existing home sales data for March. Further declines are expected in both series. The weakness in the housing market is a well established fact now, so the declines in the series probably would need to be rather dramatic in order to significantly weigh on the dollar. In Canada, the Bank of Canada hold a policy meeting this morning. Although there is little chance the Bank will raise rates this morning, investors will scrutinize the statement that will be released at the conclusion of the meeting for clues about monetary policy going forward. A hawkish statement could lead to further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.