NEWS / Foreign Exchange

The sell off of the AUD and NZD is overdone

A bit of a swing against us in our bearish US dollar view, but that is what makes markets a challenge. It is never easy, and yesterday I perhaps got a little over-confident. The big picture outlined in yesterday??™s Currency View report is however unchanged. The forces pushing the US dollar lower remain in place and will continue to dominate in trend terms. The markets will zig and zag along the trend as speculators like us occasionally get ahead of ourselves and subsequently are stopped out. The key I have always said is sticking to a winning methodology through the corrective periods and maintaining a winning posture. The US dollar will fall sharply lower at any time, and it remains our core strategy to be short the US dollar, especially against the high yielders.

The sell off of the AUD and NZD is overdone.

Continue to favour .8225 holding for major up-trend resumption in AUD, though when I ask ???what would hurt the market the most???, I get a spike to .8160 then rally to .8650 feeling? Favour .8225 to hold, but .8160 is a slight chance as a massive stop out of longs before resuming the fundamental up-trend. A recovery of .8315 again should confirm the lows of this consolidation phase have been seen.

Similar levels in NZD are .7355 to hold for up-trend resumption, though a brief spike to .7270 cannot be entirely ruled out until .7440 resistance is again recovered.

all the best for the markets and the weekend,

Currency Trading

TACTICAL Points are for April

EUR/USD 1.3590 +165 pts
Long 2 units 1.3599, stop loss 1.3581
Long 2 units 1.3629, stopped 1.3601
Buy 2 units on stop 1.3639, stop loss 1.3581
Sell 2 units on stop 1.3521, stop loss 1.3569

GBP/USD 1.9900 +599 pt
Long 2 units 2.0049, stopped 1.9981
Buy 2 units on stop 1.9969, stop loss 1.9901
Buy 2 units on stop 2.0029, stop loss 1.9961
Buy 2 units on stop 2.0069, stop loss 2.0011
Short 2 units 1.9921, stop loss 1.9959

USD/YEN 119.75 -16 pts
Long 2 units 119.29, Profit stop loss 119.31
Short 2 units 119.21, Took Profit 119.09
Sell 2 units on stop 119.11, stop loss 119.59
Sell 2 units on stop 118.01, stop loss 118.59

EUR/YEN 162.75 +245 pts
Long 2 units 161.59, Profit stop loss 162.11

EUR/GBP .6830 -24 pts
Long 2 units .6819, stop loss .6781
Sell 2 units on stop .6731, stop loss .6789

GBP/YEN 238.25 +213 pts
Long 2 units 238.39, stop loss 237.31

AUD/USD .8270 +418 pts
Long 2 units .8289, Took Profit .8301
Long 2 units .8309, Took Profit .8321
Buy 2 units on stop .8289, stop loss .8241
Buy 2 units on stop .8329, stop loss .8261
Sell 2 units on stop .8211, stop loss .8259

NZD/USD .7400 +646 pts
Buy 2 units on stop .7429, stop loss .7371
Buy 2 units on stop .7489, stop loss .7441
Sell 2 units on stop .7361, stop loss .7399

AUD/YEN 98.90 +314 pts
Buy 2 units on stop 99.49, stop loss 98.61

1 unit = 50% of Initial Account Size
e.g. for a $100,000 account,
1 unit = $50,000 position
2 units = $100,000 position

STRATEGIC

EUR 1.3590
Bullish at 1.3369, Profit S/L 1.3541
Sell at 1.3461, S/L 1.3509

GBP 1.9900
Bullish at 1.9739
Took Profit at 1.9941
Buy at 1.9999, S/L 1.9861
Sell at 1.9841, S/L 1.9899

YEN 119.75
Buy at 120.29, S/L 119.51
Bearish at 118.71
Stopped at 119.29
Sell at 118.81, S/L 119.39

EUR/YEN 162.75
Bullish at 161.99, S/L 161.41

AUD .8270
Buy at .8379, S/L .8291
Sell at .8201, S/L .8269

NZD .7465
Buy at .7469, S/L .7391
Sell at .7341, S/L .7399

CHF 1.2040
Buy at 1.2179, S/L 1.2121
Bearish at 1.2031, S/L 1.2089

CAD 1.1160
Buy at 1.1499, S/L 1.1421
Bearish at 1.1531, Profit S/L 1.1239