NEWS / Foreign Exchange

the disappointing data had very little effect on the yen

There was a slew of Japanese economic data last night that generally were disappointing. Industrial production slipped 0.6% in March, retracing most of its 0.7% rise during the previous month, and retail sales dropped 1.3% last month. Although the unemployment rate held steady at 4.0%, the number of job offers declined last month. Consumer prices fell 0.1% in March (year-over-year). If there were any doubt that the Bank of Japan would refrain from raising rates over the next few months, they were dispelled by last night's data. However, the disappointing data had very little effect on the yen. Indeed, most dollar exchange rates are little changed relative to 24 hours ago.

Market participants await the release of first quarter real GDP data at 8:30 EDT this morning. The consensus forecast anticipates that the U.S. economy grew at an unimpressive annualized rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter. A weaker-than-expected number likely would weigh on the dollar. Indeed, if the data are weak enough, the euro may make another serious attempt at taking out resistance at its all-time high vis-? -vis the greenback. However, the euro has been trading at these lofty levels for a week or so, and a failure to break technical resistance again could lead to a near-term retracement in the dollars/euro exchange rate. On the other hand, a break of resistance would leave market participants free to set the bounds of a new trading range. Stay tuned.