NEWS / Foreign Exchange

the strength of the euro against the dollar is still clearly in play

After hitting an all-time high on Friday, the euro has retreated sharply. It remains, however, at levels above the close of business last Thursday. So while somewhat of a reversal has occurred, the strength of the euro against the dollar is still clearly in play. Part of the reason for the reversal this morning likely came from the Euro-zone CPI estimate for April, which came in at 1.8 percent.

Although this was on-target with consensus estimates, it is below the ECB's proclaimed target of 2 percent inflation, and thus is indicative that the ECB may not need to hike much further. Indeed, we believe there is one rate hike left for the ECB and that it will likely be in May. Also out of the Euro-zone this morning were German retail sales for March, which were a mixed bag. Retail sales were much weaker month-over-month than expected, but stronger year-over-year.

This morning, Canadian GDP will be released for the month of February. This is expected to have risen by 0.2 percent. Stronger number could give CAD a boost, which is already trading a shade stronger this morning. U.S. data this morning includes personal income and spending data and PCE data. Watch the PCE Core figures for inflationary implications. Big numbers could boost the greenback. Also out today are construction spending and Chicago PMI. As long as Chicago remains above 50, it is indicative of growth. A Chicago number below 50, however, would point to regional contraction in manufacturing and hurt USD.