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08:36 2007/10/23
A day of consolidation looks to be the theme in Europe
Afterthe inability for US stocks to have a follow through after Friday'ssharp sell-off, it is very likely that it will be a quiet day with lackof volatility supported by a light calender...
Overnight News BulletsJN Convenience Store Sales YoY (Sep), out at 0.1% vs. -0.1% prior. E-Z Govt Debt/GDP Ratio (Dec 31), out at 68.6% vs. 69.0% exp. 69.0% prior. E-Z Budget Def/GDP Ratio (Dec 31), out at -1.5% vs. -1.6% exp. -1.6% prior. PD Core Inflation MoM/YoY (Sep) out 0.2%/1.2% vs. 0.2%/1.3% expected.
MarketsFX: Carry unwinding was the theme in early Europe, but recoveredsharply as the correlation to intra-day bullish stock markets continue. Fixed Income: The bullish bias took a breather through NY, astreasuries fell on stocks inability to follow thorugh from Friday'slosses. Stocks: Major indices in the US closing in the in positive territory, with Nikkei following through in the Asian session. Commodities: Gold and silver recovering on EURUSD finding bids.Crude oil remains range bound after the sell-off above $90 per barrel.
O/N Data Heat map:
CalendarToday's Highlights: | FR | Consumer Spending MoM/YoY (Sep) | -0.104166667 | | E-Z | Industrial New Orders MoM/YoY (Aug) | 0.9%/6.0% | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends (Oct) | | | CA | Retail Sales MoM (Aug) | 0.50% | | CA | Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Aug) | 0.30% | | US | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Oct) | 8 | | US | ABC Cosumer Confidence (Oct 21) | -13 (Prior) | | JN | Merchnds Trade Balance Total (Sep) | Y1475.5B | | JN | Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. (Sep) | Y933.0B |
This and Next Week???‚¬?„?s Highlights: | AU | CPI | | E-Z | Current Account, PMI Manuf., PMI Services | | US | MBA Mortgage, Existing Home, API/DOE Inventories | | NZ | Official Cash Target Rate | | JN | MOF Net Bonds & Stocks Invest | | GE | IFO-indices | | US | Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Help Wanted | | SW | PPI | | JN | CPI, Industrial Production | | SZ | PPI | | E-Z | Euro-Zone M3 Figures | | CA | Business Conditions Orders | | US | U. Of Michigan Confidence, Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. | | NZ | Trade Balance, Imports/Exports | | JN | Retail Trade, Large Retailers Trade |
What's going on? Dollar was able to gain against the Euro yesterday, but continuedits slide against the JPY. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index forSeptember showed that economic expansion was continuing, but a belowtrend pace. So a bias in data remains for another slide for the dollarbefore changing our view for a more firm dollar. Global stock markets had a very interesting Monday, not leastbecause the basic materials sector, which has outperformed for severalyears, was the worst performer yesterday. On a relative basis,yesterday was the single worst-performing day since mid- August, whenthe credit problems hit the market. Over the past year, weakness in basic materials has tended tocoincide with a weak AUD. The Aussie fell sharply through the Europeansession and early NY, but made a solid comeback as Stocks turned greenled by strong earnings and recovered some of Friday's losses...
FX
FX Trading Strategies | 1.16 | 1.19 | We have a signal to short at 1.17597...So we placed an order to sell at 1.1761 stop offer. Stop at 1.1779 bid, targeting 1.1705. We recommend reducing position sizes due to the lack of direction in the market intra-day. |
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