06:59 2007/10/25
Stocks in strong, intraday reversal
Crude Oil strengthening on bullish inventories. USD unchanged, but could weaken on horrible housing figures.
Overnight News Bullets Italian Business Confidence (Oct) out at 92.9 vs. 91.9 expected. Italian Trade Balance Non-EU, (Sep) out at -2112 vs. 1960 expected. E-Z Current Account (Aug) out at 3.8B vs. 2.0B expected. E-Z PMI Manufacturing (Oct A) out at 51.5 vs. 52.9 expected. E-Z PMI Services (Oct A) out at 55.6 vs. 54.5 expected. E-Z PMI Composite (Oct A) out at 54.5 vs. 54.6 expected. US MBA Mortgage Approvals out at 0.0% vs. 0.7% prior week. US Existing Home Sales (Sep) out at 5.04M vs. 5.25M expected. US Existing Home Sales YoY (Sep) out at -8% vs. -4.5% expected. Quite big and unexpected draws in Crude Oil Inventories from API/DOE. BBNZ Official Cash Rate out at 8.25% as expected. Japanese MoF Foreign Net Stock Investments (Oct) out at Y323.1B Japanese MoF Foreign Net Bonds Investments (Oct) out at Y153.2B
Markets FX: Quite narrow ranges with general JPY strength. Fixed Income: 10-year contracts showing continued strength. STIR futures not really moving. Stocks: European session weak, but very strong reversal intraday in US indices. Nikkei down 0.5%. Commodities: Crude Oil trading stronger. Precious metals: gold strong, silver unchanged.
O/N Data Heat map:
Calendar Today's Highlights: | SW | Trade Balance (Sep) | 7.5B | | SW | PPI MoM/YoY (Sep) | 0.4%/4.8% | | SW | Household Lending YoY (Sep) | 11.8% (prior) | | GE | IFO Business Climate (Oct) | 103.7 | | GE | IFO Current Assessment (Oct) | 109.3 | | GE | IFO Expectations (Oct) | 98.3 | | US | Durable Goods Orders (Sep) | 1.50% | | US | Durables Ex Transportation (Sep) | 0.70% | | US | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 20) | 320K | | US | Continuing Claims (Oct 13) | 2528K | | US | New Home Sales (Sep) | 770K | | US | New Home Sales MoM (Sep) | -3.10% | | US | Help Wanted Index (Sep) | 23 | | US | EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Oct 19) | 55 | | JN | Tokyo CPI YoY (Oct) | 0.00% | | JN | Natl CPI YoY (Sep) | -0.10% | | JN | Industrial Production MoM/YoY (Sep P) | -1 |
This and Next Week??™s Highlights: | SZ | PPI | | E-Z | Euro-Zone M3 Figures | | CA | Business Conditions Orders | | US | U. Of Michigan Confidence, Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. | | NZ | Trade Balance, Imports/Exports | | JN | Retail Trade, Large Retailers Trade | | UK | M4 Figures, Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending Sec on Dwellings, Mortgage Approvals | | NZ | Building Permits |
What's going on? US equities fell for the first time in 3-days after Merrill Lynch came out with biggest quarterly loss in its 93-yr history and home sales tumbled yet again with its biggest ever monthly change. Existing Home Prices again down 5% YoY. Yen climbed for a second day against the 16 of the most-actively traded currencies as worsening house slump in the US prompted the investors to curb yen-funded carry trades Crude oil surged back to $88 a barrel level and London Brent hit an all-time high $85.13 on early Thursday trading after a fall in US oil stocks stoked fears of an impending energy crunch. Compounding supply concerns, Mexico closed its main oil exporting ports due to bad weather.
FX EURCZK to continue the strong downtrend 
FX Trading Strategies | 27 | 27.25 | A break of support most likely with Czech rate decision later today. The market is positioning for a no-hike decision. Best risk-reward being short. Sell at 27.029 offered. Stop at 27.308 bid. Initial target 26.270 |
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