Overnight News Bullets
GE GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) out at 4.9 vs. 6.5 expected.
A streak of German CPI figures basically as expected.
CA Business Conditions Orders (Oct) out at -3 vs. 0 expected.
US University of Michigan Confidence (Oct F) out at 80.9 vs. 82.0 expected.
NZ Trade Balance (Sep) out at -544 vs. -700 expected.
Japanese Large Retailers??™ Sales (Sep) out at -2.0% vs. -1.8% expected.
Japanese Retail Trade YoY (Sep) out at 0.5% vs. -0.7% expected.
Australian NAB Business Confidence (4Q) out at 9 vs. 12 prior.
Markets
FX: EURUSD stronger, now trading at 1.4425. USD and JPY both weak.
Fixed Income: All 10-year contracts look toppish.
Stocks: All indices were somewhat stronger on Friday. Nasdaq again about to make new highs.
Commodities: Significant strength across the board. Gold @ 793. Silver @ 14.40. Crude Oil @ 93.
O/N Data Heat map:
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
| Time (GMT) | Region | Release | Consensus |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (SEP) | Prior 1.0% / 12.8% |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Sterling Lending (SEP) | 23.0B |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Consumer Credit (SEP) | 0.9B |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (SEP) | 8.3B |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals (SEP) | 102K |
| 21:45 | NZ | Building Permits (SEP) | Prior 5.8% |
| 23:30 | JN | Jobless Rate (SEP) | 3.80% |
| 23:30 | JN | Job-To-Applicant Ratio (SEP) | 1.06 |
| 23:30 | JN | Overall Household Spending YoY (SEP) | 1.40% |
This and Next Week??™s Highlights:
| Date | Region | Release |
| 30-Oct | AU | NAB Business Conditions Actual, NAB Business Conditions Outlook |
| 30-Oct | NZ | Money Supply M3 |
| 30-Oct | JN | Small Business Confidence, Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI |
| 30-Oct | SW | Riksbank Interest Rate, Retail Sales |
| 30-Oct | GE | Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate, ILO Unemployment Rate, IFO Oct. Business Climate Survey by Industry |
| 30-Oct | SZ | UBS Consumption Indicator |
| 30-Oct | CA | Industrial Product Price, Raw Materials Price |
| 30-Oct | US | S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, ABC Consumer Confidence |
| 31-Oct | AU | HIA New Home SAles, Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit, RBA Commodity Index SDR, AiG Performance Index |
| 31-Oct | JN | Labor Cash Earnings, Overtime Earnings, Vehicle Production, BoJ Target Rate, Housing Starts, Annualized Housing Starts, Construction Orders |
| 31-Oct | NZ | NBNZ Business Confidence |
| 31-Oct | GE | Retail Sales |
| 31-Oct | UK | Nationwide House Prices NSA, GfK Consumer Confidence Survey |
| 31-Oct | SW | Manufacturing Confidence, Consumer Confidence, Economic Tendency Survey, |
| 31-Oct | NO | Retail Sales, Credit Indicator Growth, Unemployment Rate (AKU), Norwegian Deposit Rates |
| 31-Oct | EC | E-Z Consumer Confidence, E-Z Industrial Confidence, E-Z Unemployment Rate, Business Climate Indicator, E-Z CPI Estimate, E-Z Economic Confidence, E-Z Service Confidence |
| 31-Oct | SZ | KOF Swiss Leading Indicator |
| Date | Region | Release |
| 31-Oct | US | MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, a string of GDP??™s, Personal Consumption, Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, Chigago Purchasing Manager, Construction Spending, NAPM-Milwaukee, DOE US Crude Oil, FOMC Interest Rate |
| 31-Oct | CA | GDP |
What's going on?
Crude oil rallied to yet another all-time high with the WTI December contract hitting $93.20 on Monday??™s trading after Mexico shut down a fifth of its production due to a large storm.
Asian stocks rose for a 3rd day pushing benchmarks in Hong Kong, India and South Korea to record highs on positive earning reports and rising oil prices. Hang Seng index has breached 31,500 level.
As speculation on a possible Fed cut this Wednesday gained strength, dollar fell to new record lows, with CAD at 33-yr and AUD at 23-yr highs against the USD.
The Chinese yuan rose the most in 2-yr period after China??™s central bank signaled it will allow faster appreciation to help narrow a record trade surplus. Yuan climbed about 0.3% against the dollar.
FX
Significant Downside in USDMXN
FX Trading Strategies
| Pair | Supp. | Resis. | Comments |
| USDMXN | 10.7 | 10.76 | Long-term downward trend has picked up momentum after rate hike. With potential Fed-rate cut on Wednesday, further downside to open up. We are already short from 10.7899 and will add at break of 10.7054 offered We are targeting 10.5000 and have a stop at 10.8620 bid. For fresh shorts from 10.7054 offered, keep stop loss at 10.7590 bid. This is a long-term trade targeting near-lows of 2006. Details also in Trading Strategies. |