Overnight News Bullets
UK M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (Sep F), out at 1.0%/12.8% vs. 1.0%/12.8% prior.
UK M4 Sterling Lending (Sep F), out at 23.7B vs. 23.0B prior.
UK Net Consumer Credit (Sep), out at 1.4B vs. 0.9B exp. 1.1B prior
UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (Sep), out at 9.8B vs. 8.3B exp. 8.5B prior.
UK Mortgage Approvals (Sep), out at 102K as expected. 108K prior.
GE Consumer Price Index MoM/YoY (Oct P), out at 0.2%/2.4% vs. 0.1%/2.4% exp. 0.1%/2.4% prior.
GE CPI ??“ EU Harmonised MoM/YoY (Oct P), out at 0.2%/2.7% vs. 0.1%/2.6% exp. 0.2%/2.7% prior.
NZ Building Permits MoM (Sep), out at -8.3 vs. 5.8% prior.
JN Jobless Rate (Sep), out at 4.0% vs. 3.8% exp. 3.8% prior.
JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Sep), out at 1.05 vs. 1.06 exp. 1.06 prior.
JN Overall Hhold Spending YoY (Sep), out at 3.2% vs. 1.4% exp. 1.6% prior.
NZ Money Supply M3 YoY (Sep), out at 9.4% vs. 8.4% prior.
JN Small business Confidence (Oct), out at 47.8 vs. 49.1 prior.
Markets
FX: GBPUSD traded near 26-year high on rate picture, Euro sliding somewhat on concerns regarding European Banks
Fixed Income: JGB still strong ahead of rates,
Stocks: Strong sessions in Europe and US, Asian stocks fell as Kookmin Bank reported earnings below estimates
Commodities: Oil retracing a little after recent strong days, Metals paring gains ahead of FOMC Decision.
O/N Data Heat map:
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
| Time (GMT) | Region | Release | Consensus |
| 07:00 | GE | ILO Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 6.10% |
| 08:30 | SW | Riksbank Interest Rate (Oct 30) | 4.00% |
| 08:30 | SW | Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Sep) | 0.9%/7.5% |
| 08:55 | GE | Unemployment Change (Oct) | -30K |
| 08:55 | GE | Unemploynent Rate (Oct) | 8.70% |
| 09:00 | SZ | UBS Consumption Indicator (Sep) | 1.932 (Prior) |
| 12:30 | CA | Industrial Product Price MoM (Sep) | -0.40% |
| 12:30 | CA | Raw Materials Price Index (Sep) | 0.70% |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/CS Composite 20 YoY (Aug) | -4.20% |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/CS Home Price Index (Aug) | 198.4 (Prior) |
| 14:00 | US | Consumer Confidence (Oct) | 99 |
| 21:00 | US | ABC Consumer Confidence (Oct 28) | -17 (Prior) |
| 23:15 | JN | Nomura JMMA Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 50 |
This and Next Week??™s Highlights:
| Date | Region | Release |
| 31-Oct | AU | HIA New Home Sales, Building Approvals, Private Sector Credit, RBA Commodity Index SDR, AiG Performance Index |
| 31-Oct | JN | Labor Cash Earnings, Overtime Earnings, Vehicle Production, BoJ Target Rate, Housing Starts, Annualized Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Net Stock/Bonds Investment |
| 31-Oct | NZ | NBNZ Business Confidence |
| 31-Oct | GE | Retail Sales |
| 31-Oct | UK | Nationwide House Prices NSA, GfK Consumer Confidence Survey |
| 31-Oct | SW | Manufacturing Confidence, Consumer Confidence, Economic Tendency Survey, |
| 31-Oct | NO | Retail Sales, Credit Indicator Growth, Unemployment Rate (AKU), Norwegian Deposit Rates |
| 31-Oct | EC | E-Z Consumer Confidence, E-Z Industrial Confidence, E-Z Unemployment Rate, Business Climate Indicator, E-Z CPI Estimate, E-Z Economic Confidence, E-Z Service Confidence |
| 31-Oct | SZ | KOF Swiss Leading Indicator |
| 31-Oct | US | MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Annualized, Personal Consumption, GDP Price Index, Core PCE, Employment Cost, Chicago PMI, Construction Spending, DOE/API Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision |
| 31-Oct | CA | GDP |
| 01-Nov | AU | Retail Sales, Trade Balance |
| 01-Nov | JN | Vehicle Sales |
| 01-Nov | SW | Swedbank PMI Survey |
| 01-Nov | NO | Unemployment Rate |
What's going on?
Euro??™s 5-day gains against dollar were snapped on speculation European banks would report increased subprime related losses. UBS reported this morning that it had sustained a Q3 SF830M in subprime related defaults and writedowns.
Crude oil prices eased off from all-time highs as investors were seen taking profits after a 4-day rally. Speculation of US stockpiles showing an increase later this week also helped prices to be contained.
Asian stocks edged lower after Monday??™s major gains as trading was somewhat subdued ahead of FOMC??™s rate decision on Wednesday.
FX
FX Trading Strategies
| Pair | Supp. | Resis. | Comments |
| USDZAR | 6.48 | 6.71 | Sudden surge in ZAR value will meet pressure as ZAR is vulnerable to reversal in metal prices and general shofts away from riskier investments. We look to buy a call option with strike 7.0270, expiry 21 December 2007. Estimated price ZAR 724 points with spot ref 6.5768. Detail in trading strategies when we will purchase the call. |