NEWS / Foreign Exchange

US: House price decline accelerates and consumer

The S&P house prices dropped a slightly steeper than expected 4.4% Y/Y in September, following a 3.8% Y/Y decline in July. The 3 month annualized decline accelerated to -5.69% from -3.72% previously, with Miami showing the fastest decline at - 19% (3-m ann.). Only two of the 20 regions, Denver and Charlotte posted positive monthly figures. The sharpest monthly declines were registered in Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, San Diego and Los Angeles. The fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround, said chief economist Robert Shiller.

Consumer confidence fell sharply in October, according to the Conference Board report. The headline figure slumped to 95.6 from 99.5 in September, below the consensus estimate of 98. Both the present situation and the expectations sub-indices contributed to the decline. The employment present and future conditions weakened, but not tremendously.

EMU: Weak retail sentiment

The Bloomberg retail PMI report suggested a pronounced loss of momentum in the retail sector in October. The headline index dropped to 47.9 from 50.5 in September, re-entering contraction territory. Declines were reported for Germany and France, while Italy showed a rise, but remained below the boom/bust level like both other countries. While a negative, we hesitate to draw conclusions from, as the results are often volatile and the statistical relevance is questionable.

German unemployment fell by 40 000 in October, pushing the unemployment rate down to 8.7% from 8.8% previously. The outcome was slightly better than the decline by 30 000 expected. The outcome is in line with recent averages and still shows a healthy labour market. Vacancies were slightly up too.

Others: Riksbank raises rates to 4%

The Swedish Riksbank hiked its official rate by 25 basis points to 4%, matching the ECB rate for the first time in years. It is the third consecutive hike since June and due to inflation fears from higher commodity prices, higher wage inflation and increased inflation expectations against the background of an economy increasingly operating at very high levels of capacity utilization. Its Monetary Policy Report shows the re-po rate peaking at 4.41% in Q1 2009.