NEWS / Foreign Exchange

Treasury Market Preview

• *** ECONOMIC SCHEDULE ***
• US Oct ADP Employment Change: 60Ke || 58K prior [8:15 et]
• US Q3 Advanced GDP Annualized: 3.1%e || 3.8% prior [8:30 et]
• US Q3 Advanced GDP Price Index: 2.0%e || 2.6% prior [8:30 et]
• US Q3 Advanced Core PCE: 1.5%e || 1.4% prior [8:30 et]
• US Q3 Personal Consumption: 3.2%e || 1.4% prior [8:30 et]
• NO Norges Bank Rate Decision: Expected to keep rates on hold at 5.00% [9:00 et]
• US Oct Chicago PMI: 53.0e || 54.2 prior [9:45 et]
• US Sep Construction Spending: -0.5%e || 0.2% prior [10:00 et]
• US Sep NAPM-Milwaukee: No estimates || 70.0 prior [10:00 et]
• US FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.50% [14:15 et]
• *** EUROPEAN NEWS OVERNIGHT ***
• GE Sep Retail Sales: M/M 2.3% v 0.8%e || Prior revised from ??“1.4% to ??“1.6% |||| Y/Y ??“2.2% v ??“0.6%e || Prior revised from ??“2.2% to ??“2.1%
• UK Oct Nationwide House Prices: M/M 1.1% v 0.2%e || Y/Y 9.7% v 8.5%e
• FR Oct Consumer Confidence: -22 v ??“22e
• FR Sep Producer Prices: M/M 0.4% v 0.3%e || Prior revised from 0.2% to 0.1% |||| Y/Y 2.7% v 2.5%e
• EU Sep Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 6.9%e || Prior revised from 6.9% to 7.4%
• EU Oct CPI Estimate: 2.6% v 2.3%e [two-year high]
• EU Oct Business Climate Indicator: 0.87 v 1.03e || Prior revised from 1.09 to 1.08
• EU Oct Consumer Confidence: -6 v ??“5e || Prior revised from ??“ to ??“6
• ECB Weber: Reiterates that risks to price stability have increased [newspaper interview]
• ECB Weber: Reiterates that further action may be warranted [newspaper interview]
• GE VDMI: Says that German machinery orders were +7% y/y in September vs. +14% in August
• FR Budget Minister: Reiterates FY08 growth forecast of 2.25%
• *** ASIAN NEWS OVERNIGHT ***
• JP Bank of Japan votes 8-1 to keep rates on hold at 0.50%
• JP Sep Housing Starts: -44.0% v ??“31.2%e
• JP Sep Annualized Housing Starts: 0.720M v 0.854Me
• JP Sep Costruction Orders ??“16.3% v ??“15.0%e
• JP Sep Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 v 49.5e
• AU Sep HIA New Home Sales: 9.9% v ??“8.6% prior
• AU Sep Building Approvals: M/M 6.8% v 1.0%e || Prior revised from ??“1.7% to ??“1.8%
• AU Sep Private Sector Credit M/M: 1.2% v 1.0%
• NZ Oct Business Confidence: -12.9 v ??“26.5 prior
• SK Nov Business Survey Manufacturing: 93.0 v 94.0 prior
• SK Nov Business Survey Non-Manufacturing: 90.0 v 91.0 prior
• SI Q3 Unemployment Rate 1.7% v 2.2%e
• CH Oct Consumer Credit: 100.8 v 101.0 prior [unofficial]
• BOJ Fukui: Downside risks are increasing in Japan
• BOJ Fukui: Uncertainties are not necessarily slowing the pace of rate hikes
• BOJ Fukui: The Bank of Japan will adjust rates gradually