Today's US GDP figures and FOMC rate decision will cause a lot of volatility.
Overnight News Bullets
French Housing Starts/Permits YoY (Sep) out at 12.9%/3.2% vs. 13.3/0.1% expected.
Swedish Riksbank Interest Rate out at 4.00% (unchanged) as expected.
Swedish Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 2.6%/9.9% vs. 0.9%/7.5% expected.
German Unemployment Change (Oct) out at -40K vs. -30K expected.
German Unemployment Rate (Oct) out at 8.7% as expected.
Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator (Sep) out at 1.992 vs. 1.932 prior.
Canadian Industrial Product Price MoM (Sep) out at -0.9% vs. -0.4% expected.
Canadian Raw Materials Price Index MoM (Sep) out at -0.9% vs. 0.7% expected.
US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index YoY (Aug) out at -4.4% vs. -4.2% expected.
US Consumer Confidence (Oct) out at 95.6 vs. 99.0 expected.
ABC Consumer Confidence (Oct 28) out at -15 vs. -17 prior.
Japanese Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (Oct) out at 49.5 vs. 49.9 expected.
Australian HIA New Home Sales MoM (Sep) out at 9.9% vs, -8.6% prior.
Australian Building Approvals MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 6.8%/4.2% vs. -1.7%/-0.0% prior.
Australian Private Sector Credit MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 1.2%/15.9% vs. 1.5%/16.2% prior.
Japanese Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Sep) out at -0.5% vs. 0.2% expected.
Japanese Overtime Earnings YoY (Sep) out at 1.4% vs. 1.2% prior.
NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (Oct) out at -12.9 vs. -26.5 expected.
BoJ Target Rate out at 0.50% (unchanged) as expected. Dovish semiannual outlook report.
Japanese Housing Starts (Sep) out at -44% vs. -31.2% expected.
Japanese Construction Orders YoY (Sep) out at 720K vs. 854K expected.
UK Nationwide House Price sa YoY (Oct) out at 9.7% vs. 8.5% expected.
German Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 2.3%/-2.2% vs. 0.8%/-0.6% expected.
Markets
FX: USD making new lows. JPY about unchanged. European currencies edging higher.
Fixed Income: 10-year contracts lost momentum, seeing some consolidation.
Stocks: European and US session weak. Tech stocks still looking strongest. Nikkei up 0.52%.
Commodities: Still looking strong on USD weakness. Crude Oil @ 89.61. Gold @ 783.53. Silver @ 14.21.
O/N Data Heat map:
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
| Time (GMT) | Region | Release | Consensus |
| 8:15 | SW | Consumer Confidence (OCT) | 16 |
| 8:15 | SW | Economic Tendency Survey (OCT) | Prior 109.3 |
| 8:15 | SW | Manufacturing Confidence (3Q) | Prior 10.0 |
| 9:00 | NO | Retail Sales MoM/YoY (SEP) | 0.5% / 6.1% |
| 9:00 | NO | Credit Indicator Growth YoY (SEP) | 14.50% |
| 9:00 | EC | E-Z Consumer Confidence (OCT) | -5 |
| 9:00 | EC | E-Z Industrial Confidence (OCT) | 2 |
| 9:00 | NO | Unemployment Rate AKU (AUG) | 2.50% |
| 10:00 | EC | E-Z Unemployment Rate (SEP) | 6.90% |
| 10:00 | EC | E-Z Business Climate Indicator YoY (OCT) | 1.03 |
| 10:00 | EC | E-Z CPI Estimate YoY (OCT) | 2.30% |
| 10:00 | EC | E-Z Economic Confidence (OCT) | 106.5 |
| 10:00 | EC | E-Z Services Confidence (OCT) | 19 |
| 10:30 | UK | GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (OCT) | -8 |
| Time (GMT) | Region | Release | Consensus |
| 10:30 | SZ | KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (OCT) | 2.1 |
| 11:00 | US | MBA Mortgage Applications (OCT) | Prior 0% |
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change (OCT) | 58K |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Annualized (3Q) | 3.10% |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Consumption (3Q) | 3.20% |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index (3Q) | 2.00% |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE QoQ (3Q) | 1.50% |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index (3Q) | 0.90% |
| 12:30 | CA | GDP MoM (AUG) | 0.10% |
| 13:00 | NO | Norwegian Deposit Rates (NOV) | 5.00% |
| 13:45 | US | Chigago Purchasing Manager (OCT) | 53 |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM (SEP) | -0.50% |
| 14:00 | US | NAPM-Milwaukee (OCT) | Prior 70.0 |
| 18:15 | US | FOMC Rate Decision (OCT) | 4.50% |
| 22:30 | AU | AiG Performance of Mfg Index (OCT) | Prior 50.7 |
| 23:50 | JN | Net Stock/Bonds Investment (OCT) | JPY323.1B/JPY153.2B |
This and Next Week??™s Highlights:
| Date | Region | Release |
| 1-Nov | AU | Retail Sales, Retail Sales Ex. Inflation, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, RBA Commidity Index SDR |
| 1-Nov | JN | Vehicle Sales |
| 1-Nov | UK | HBOS House Prices, PMI Manufacturing |
| 1-Nov | SW | Swedbank PMI Survey |
| 1-Nov | SZ | SVME-Purchasing Managers Index |
| 1-Nov | NO | Unemployment Rate |
| 1-Nov | US | Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, EIA Natural Gas Storage Change |
What's going on?
Traders are largely betting that Federal Reserve will reduce thebenchmark rate by quarter-percentage today. This has kept the dollarwell offered, with EURUSD hitting another all-time high at 1.4455 andcable climbing over 2.07 for the first time in 26 years.
Equity markets were largely subdued ahead of FOMC rate decisiontoday. Caution before the rate call also taxed the commodity prices, asboth crude and oil prices continued to edge slightly lower.
Big European banks gave mixed signals as Deutsche Bank reported31% profit growth in Q3 while UBS stated that subprime relatedwritedowns may continue into Q4. In the US, Merrill Lynch ousted CEO Stan O??™Neal after a record loss.
Bank of Japan kept benchmark rates at 0.50% as largely expected butcut economic growth forecast and abandoned prediction for an increasein consumer prices this year. Bank??™s growth forecast for this year hasbeen scaled down to 1.8% from 2.1% predicted 6 months ago.