NEWS / Foreign Exchange

FED Cuts 25 bp as largely expected

Overnight News Bullets

• UK Nationwide House Prices MoM/YoY (Oct) out at 1.1%/9.7% vs. 0.2%/8.5% expected.

• GE Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 2.3%/-2.2% vs. 0.8%/-0.6% expected.

• FR PPI MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 0.4%/2.7% vs. 0.3%/2.5% expected.

• SW Consumer Confidence (Oct) out at 17.7 vs. 16.0 expected.

• NO Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Sep) out at 1.5%/7.4% vs. 0.5%/6.1% expected.

• NO Unemployment Rate AKU (Aug) out at 2.5% as expected.

• E-Z Unemployment Rate (Sep) out at 7.3% vs. 6.9% expected. Prior revised to 7.4% from 6.9%.

• E-Z CPI Estimate YoY (Oct) out at 2.6% vs. 2.3% expected.

• E-Z Consumer Confidence (Oct) out at -6 vs. -5 expected. Industrial Confidence out at 2 as expected.

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Oct) out at -8 as expected.

• SZ KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (Oct) out at 2.02 vs. 2.1 expected.

• US MBA Mortgage out at 3.8% vs. 0.0% prior.

• US ADP Employment Change (Oct) out at 106K vs. 58K expected.

• US GDP Annualized (3A Q) out at 3.9% vs. 3.1% expected. GDP Price Index out at 0.8% vs. 2.0% expected.

• US Personal Consumption (3Q A) out at 3.0% vs. 3.2% expected.

• US Core PCE QoQ (3Q A) out at 1.8% vs. 1.5% expected.

• US Employment Cost Index (3Q) out at 0.8% vs. 0.9% expected.

• CA GDP MoM (Aug) out at 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected.

• PD Base Rates at 4.75% unchanged as expected.

• NO Deposit Rates at 5.0% unchanged as expected.

• US Chicago PMI (Oct) out at 49.7 vs. 53.0% expected. Prior at 54.2

• US Construction Spending MoM (Sep) out at 0.3% vs. -0.5% expected.

• US NAPM Miwaukee (Oct) out at 63 vs. 70 prior.

• US DOE Inventories: Crude at -3894k vs. 400k exp, Gasoline at 1295K vs. -200K exp., Distillate out at 808K vs. -1000K exp, Refinery out at -0.97% vs. -0.5% exp.

• US FOMC Rates 25bp lower at 4.50% as expected.

• JN Net StocksInvestment out at 45.6B vs. -321.2B prior.

• JN Net Bonds Investment out at 740.3B vs. 181.9B prior.

• AU Retail Sales (Sep) out at 0.8% vs. 0.5% expected.

• AU Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ (3Q) out at 1.9% vs. 1.6% expected.

• AU Trade Balance (Sep) out at -1862M vs. -1000 expected.

Markets

• FX: USDCAD in new all-time lows at 0.9426. GBPUSD in new 25-year highs above 2.08. EURUSD not able to sustain break above 1.45.

• Fixed Income: Sold off after the FOMC as the Fed probably won??™t cut rates any further. JGB??™s following lower overnight.

• Stocks: Solid increases following the FOMC ??“ S&P approaching July 2007 highs at 1556. Asia in new record highs.

• Commodities: Oil taking another leg higher on weak supply, closing in on 100$/barrel. Gold (December contract) breaking 800$ for the first time in 27 years.

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