| GBP/JPY (revisited) |
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13:43 2007/11/04 |
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I made a handsome profit recently from betting that the British Pound would break out of a multi-day congestion and appreciate against the Japanese Yen. I began to gradually build a rather large exposure in the GBP/JPY by taking a long position at market at 234.71 on September 28th - followed by longs added, again at market, in the 235, 236 and 237 price areas - and finally accompanied by a sizable order to buy at the round 238 level which got triggered on October 5th. It only took what in late US afternoon of October 8th I perceived as an early warning sign, for me to dump all long GBP/JPY positions just a few hours later on, in the early European transacting time of October 9th - right at market at 238.39. As highlighted in my FXstreet.com notes of October 13th, the warning sign actually came to my mind while updating a daily chart of the EUR/JPY instead of the Yen cross pair I happened to be directly involved in. Basically, the justification lies in the very nature of those long GBP/JPY positions. They were not intended to form a long-term exposure, nor did they attempt to test a notable bottom hypothesis. Those positions stood only as a pure momentum play; while I think I did have a pretty good idea of the current market conditions as they were unfolding several weeks ago, I at the same time knew I could be in those positions only to hit fast and then run even faster. And, in order to achieve that fast exit, I opted for a minimalist way of looking out for early warnings - and therefore, the moment the bullish initiative appeared even slightly compromised in one of the main Japanese Yen crosses, I knew I had to ask myself out of the GBP/JPY. |
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