NEWS / Foreign Exchange

German industrial new orders and output in the producing sector probably deteriorated in September

• ECB set to keep refi rate unchanged; the tone of the statement could become more hawkish

Having soared previously, German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector probably suffered setbacks in September, as most of the correlated indicators have deteriorated. August new orders might be revised upwards, whereas output could be adjusted downwards.

The German trade balance and current account are expected to have rebounded in September, following their usual seasonal pattern.

French industrial production growth might have picked up somewhat in September, as the personal production expectations improved. However, Italian industrial production could have declined in September, since Italian business confidence dropped.

The ECB Council is meeting on Thursday to discuss monetary policy. We expect it to keep rates on hold in November. In the light of recent inflation data and soaring oil and other commodity prices, the statement is likely to be more hawkish. However, given that financial markets still appear vulnerable and that euro area growth seems to be slowing down to some degree, the central bank will probably refrain from committing itself to any future policy action.