| U.S. Forex Market Commentary |
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20:23 2007/11/06 |
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EURO The euro strengthened vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the singlecurrency tested offers around the US$ 1.4570 level and was supported around the$1.4465 level. The common currencyrocketed to a new lifetime high today as traders continued to reduce U.S.dollar exposure on account of sub-prime write downs by U.S. financialinstitutions. Eurogroup chief Junckertalked up the euro??™s recent strength saying ???It is better because it's more credible, because it has been promised thatthe euro is a respectable currency. The euro cannot get indefinitely muchstronger much longer than it currently is, but better this way than the otherway around.??? Juncker also added he ???noted with interest??? that the U.S. governmenthas talked up the strong U.S. dollar. Thecommon currency shrugged off a decline in German September manufacturing ordersthat saw new orders fall 2.5% m/m and climb 1.1% y/y. Most traders believe the European CentralBank will keep its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.0% this week andtraders will closely monitor statements from ECB chief Trichet to see howhawkish he remains. Other data releasedtoday saw EMU-13 September PPI up 0.4% m/m and 2.7% y/y while October finalservices PMI was upwardly revised to 55.8 from 55.6. Also, German Octoberservices PMI improved to 55.1. Euro bidsare cited around the US$ 1.4385 level. JPN/CNY The yen depreciated gained groundvis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today asthe greenback tested bids around the ??114.25 level and was capped around the??114.80 level. Technically, today??™s intraday high was right around the 61.8%retracement of the move from ??109.00 to ??124.15. Traders dumped yen on increasing speculationBoJ??™s Policy Board will not lift interest rates before the end of the year, andpossibly not before the end of the current fiscal year in March 2008. Data released in Japan overnight saw theSeptember index of leading economic indicators decline to zero from 27.3 inAugust ??“ the first time it??™s been at zero since December 1997. Also, the coincident index weakened to 66.7from 85.0. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost0.12% to close at ??16,249.63. Dollarbids are cited around the ??113.85 level. The euro moved highervis-? -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ??166.95 leveland was supported around the ??165.45 level. The British pound and Swissgained ground vis-? -vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the??239.60 and ??100.30 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciatedvis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.4530 in theover-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.4551. Data released in Chinaovernight saw September consumer confidence decline to 97.0 from 97.3. PBoC Governor Zhou reported China??™s monetary policy mustsatisfy multiple objectives including ???growth, employment, price stability, anda balance of international payments.??? STERLING CHF The Swiss franc appreciated vis-? -visthe U.S. dollar today as the greenbacktested bids around the CHF 1.1420 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1545level. OECD lifted its Swiss growthforecast today and reported Swiss National Bank may need to tighten monetarypolicy further. Many traders believedomestic inflation is above SNB??™s perceived comfort zone and the franc??™sweakness on the euro/ Swiss cross rate could engender inflation pressures. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF1.1530 level. The euro and British pound came off vis-? -vis the Swiss franc asthe crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6630 and CHF 2.3850 levels,respectively. AUD/NZD The Australiandollar appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offersaround the US$ 0.9270 level and was supported around the $0.9200 figure. Most traders expect Reserve Bank of Australia tolift its official cash target rate by 25bps to 6.75% tomorrow and will evaluatethe hawkishness of the RBA??™s policy statement. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.9115 level. The New Zealand dollargained ground vis-? -vis the U.S. dollar as the kiwi tested offers aroundthe US$ 0.7775 level and was supported around the $0.7695 level. New Zealand dollar bids are citedaround the US$ 0.7625 level. CAD The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-? -vis the U.S.dollar todayas the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9230 level and was capped aroundthe C$ 0.9335 level. Traders awaitremarks from Bank of CanadaDeputy Jenkins later in the North American session. Data released in Canada today saw October Ivey PMIrise to 57.1 from 56.0 in September. Also, September building permits were off 1.7% m/m. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$0.9455 level. |
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